Powered by the people: 3 altcoins whose tweet volume spiked before a strong rally

In some cases, unusually high tweet volume can signal that an asset is about to soar, but traders should mind the context.

On Crypto Twitter, a surge of attention directed at a coin often comes in response to dramatic price action. Quite naturally, rallying assets attract the attention of traders and take over Twitter conversations, which can also create positive feedback loops that further prop up the momentum.

This is exactly what happened with some of the coins that saw a greater increase in average daily tweet volume this month, compared with the last. KuCoin Shares (KCS), which went up from $7.40 on July 4 to $14.20 on July 14, generated a staggering increase in average tweet volume, totaling more than 1,100% month-to-month.

Another big winner in terms of price, Axie Infinity (AXS), added 456% in tweet volume over the same period. In both cases, tweets mirrored the rallies’ dynamics, with the tweet volume curve closely following the price chart.

In other cases, however, the relationship can be reversed. Sometimes, the Twitter crowd picks up the news or emerging narratives that the wider market has yet to absorb, producing tweet volume spikes that come before price increases. Is there a way for traders to spot these dynamics early enough to gain an edge over the rest of the pack?

Data intelligence for early birds

Tweet volume is one of several metrics used to calculate the VORTECS™ score, an algorithmic indicator that compares complex patterns of market and social activity of an individual digital asset to years’ worth of historical data.

Exclusively available to Cointelegraph Markets Pro (CTMP) subscribers, the algorithm assesses parameters such as the market outlook, price movement, social sentiment and trading activity to generate a score that shows how suitable conditions of the observed combinations are for any coin at any given time.

On top of that, there is a dedicated space on the Markets Pro dashboard featuring assets that see abnormal tweet volume in real-time. Once they are alerted that something is brewing around a coin on Twitter, traders can be incentivized to take a closer look at the asset and make a judgment as to whether its price is likely to go up soon.

Here are three examples from the last thirty days where Twitter activity foreshadowed price action.

Crypto.com Coin

CRO’s Price vs VORTECS™ chart. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

In the case of Crypto.com Coin (CRO), the source of Twitter users’ excitement is crystal clear: A few hours before the coin flashed on Markets Pro’s Unusual Twitter Volume box (red circle in the chart), it emerged that CRO became the first digital asset platform to partner with the Ultimate Fighting Championship, or UFC. The announcement was also delivered to Markets Pro users seconds after the original source published it, thanks to the platform’s instantaneous NewsQuakes™ functionality.

Unsurprisingly, the big news triggered a sprawling Twitter conversation. If traders had not been convinced by NewsQuake™ and coin’s rising VORTECS™ score, the skyrocketing tweet volume could be the final argument in favor of opening a CRO position. The coin had been valued at $0.113 when tweet volume peaked on July 8, and it kept climbing in the next four days, eventually hitting $0.132 before the price began to decline.

Quantstamp

QSP’s Price vs VORTECS™ chart. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Establishing what had triggered the surge of tweets referencing Quantstamp (QSP) around June 1 is less straightforward. One potential reason could be the launch of oneFIL, a stablecoin for the Filecoin community, around that time.

The protocol behind oneFIL is audited by Quantstamp. While QSP generates just a handful of Twitter mentions per day, on July 1 it got over 150 tweets, immediately putting it on the Markets Pro radar (red circle in the graph). While the peak tweet volume corresponded to the QSP price of $0.030, the coin pulled off a strong performance in the following days, reaching $0.034 on July 4, continuing to push further.

Flow Dapper Labs

FLOW’s Price vs VORTECS™ chart. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Flow Dapper Lab’s (FLOW’s) peak tweet volume came late on July 10 (red circle in the graph) in response to a highly successful week that the asset had, more than doubling its price from $9 to over $18.

A high VORTECS™ score that FLOW received some 50 hours earlier indicated that in the past, such rallies unfolded in several rounds and that historical precedent suggested a possibility of the second leg. Sure enough, the price kept climbing even after the wave of tweets began to recede, eventually hitting $21.20

These examples demonstrate that, while an onslaught of tweets alone is not always a harbinger of an impending rally, spotting abnormal Twitter activity early on can lead to a profitable trade. It can be especially useful when combined with other metrics and a robust understanding of the coin-specific context.

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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Record network activity and a second NFT boom send WAX price higher

WAXP price appears to be gaining strength after the NFT-focused project introduced staking, yield farming and partnerships with companies that offer pop culture collectibles.

Just a few days before Bitcoin (BTC) price plunged below $30,000, the NFT sector was dominating headlines for the second time in 2021, led by a month-long 972% surge in the price of Axie Infinity

Another NFT-focused protocol that has been gaining fundamental strength in recent months is Worldwide Asset eXchange, also known as WAX — a protocol that claims to “deliver the safest and most convenient way to create, buy, sell, and trade virtual items to anyone, anywhere in the world.”

WAX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that between June 27 and July 9, the price of WAX’s WAXP token climbed 70% to a high of $0.151 before the Bitcoin-led sell-off pulled the price to its current value of $0.11.

Three reasons for the rally in WAXP include the growing list of well-known brands launching collectibles on the project’s blockchain, an active network with fast transaction times and its integration to decentralized finance via cross-chain compatibility with the Ethereum (ETH) network.

Popular brands launch NFT projects on WAX

Nostalgia can be a potent source for attracting an audience willing to engage with a product and WAX has managed to capitalize on this by partnering with somewell-known brands in the United States.

Current partners include Atari, Topps, William Shatner and Capcom and a scroll through the project’s Twitter feed shows recent campaigns for Street Fighter V Series 2 cards and special edition Bratz collectibles.

Popular collectibles like baseball cards and Garbage Pail Kids, along with more modern games like Alien Worlds (TLM) offer users a variety of options that help attract a wide audience to the WAX network and this has resulted in an increase in on-chain activity.

WAX boasts the highest activity of any network

A second sign of the growing strength of the WAX network can be found by looking at the 24-hour activity of the top-ranked blockchains, which WAX leads by a wide margin.

Top 6 most active blockchain networks. Source: Blocktivity

Data from Blocktivity shows that the 24-hour activity on WAX is now higher than 17 million operations and more than double that of Stellar (XLM), which is its closest competitor. WAX  more than six times the amount of activity on EOS, the creator of the EOSIO software which is utilized by the WAX network.

Yield opportunities arrive through DeFi and staking

The recent introduction of a cross-chain bridge to the Ethereum network allowed WAX to of yield farming and staking on the protocol, which has been enhanced through the introduction of a cross-chain bridge to the Ethereum network.

The WAX blockchain operates with a delegated proof-of-stake consensus model, meaning the simplest way that token holders can earn a yield on their holdings is by staking WAXP on the network to earn an annualized reward rate of 4.42% according to data from Staking Rewards.

Related: Altcoin Roundup: Data shows social metrics surge ahead of DeFi and NFT price rallies

Token holders can also convert their WAXP into WAXE, a version of the token that can operate on Ethereum and be used to participate in decentralized finance (DeFi) by providing liquidity on decentralized exchanges and yield farms.

Through offering opportunities related to NFTs and DeFi, two of the hottest sectors in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the WAX network is well-positioned to continue to attract new users and maintain a high level of on-chain activity.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Institutional demand for Bitcoin evaporates as BTC struggles below $31K

A lack of institutional demand and several bearish factors are complicating all efforts to pull Bitcoin price back above the $31,000 level.

The rocky road that Bitcoin (BTC) has been on for the past two months continued on July 19 as a widely predicted move downwards materialized in the early hours on Monday and dropped the price of BTC below $31,000. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that a wave of mid-day selling pushed the price of BTC to a low of $30,400 before bulls arrived to provide support and lift the price back to $30,850.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The market as a whole continues to face an uphill battle as the miner exodus following China’s crackdown on the mining industry has led to the fourth consecutive negative adjustment in the Bitcoin mining difficulty, a figure which has fallen by almost half since mid-May.

Heavy volume near $31,700

Insights into the current state of the Bitcoin network were provided in the newest report from Glassnode which set the stage by looking at the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a metric that identifies on-chain volume profiles across different price groupings.

Bitcoin UTXO realized price distribution. Source: Glassnode

Current data shows that 10.5% of the circulating supply of BTC has transacted in the range between $31,000 and $34,300, the highest level seen since a price of $11,000.

While this indicates a healthy level of volume at the current level, it’s important to note that should BTC price break lower, the next significant support levels are at $26,500, $23,300 and $18,800.

Institutional appetite for BTC dissolves

The market-wide pullback in May has led to a significant decline in interest from institutional investors, who now appear to be in risk management mode as BTC price struggles to climb higher.

Evidence of the decline in interest can be found by looking at the market price of GBTC, which continues to trade at an -11.0% to -15.3% discount, or by observing the net inflows to the Purpose ETF which has slowed down significantly. Data from Glassnode shows that the ETF saw a net outflow of -90.76 BTC, which is its largest outflow since mid-May.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

Although institutional activity has been muted, on-chain deposits of BTC to exchanges continue with more than 28,700 BTC, the largest inflow in over a month and a half, taking place on July 16th.

Bitcoin all-exchange inflow. Source: CryptoQuant

Inflows during times of consolidation and corrections are often seen as a negative developments as they can result in increased selling which can lead to a short-term price breakdown.

Glassnode also pointed to the net inflow of 1,780 BTC to over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks in the past two weeks as “moving against the structural trend of outflows in place since November 2020.”

Total Bitcoin balance held by OTC desks. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said:

“It remains to be seen whether this net inflow is just a short-term impact, or the early signs of a reversal in the balance of supply and demand.”

Related: Institutions cautious as crypto products post weakest volume since October

Covid-19 concerns take their toll on the markets ag

The cryptocurrency market wasn’t the only market that faced downward pressure on July 19 as a surge in Covid-19 cases led to a pullback in global financial markets.

The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ all closed the day down 1.59%, 2.09% and 1.06% respectively.

Out of the top 200 cryptocurrencies, the only two notable performances of the day were a 24% gain for Bitcoin Standard Hashrate Token (BTCST) and a 17% rally from Dash (DASH).

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.245 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.3%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bears back off, but Bitcoin price still wavers below $35K

Bitcoin price briefly surged above $35,000 to spark a relief rally in altcoins but a number of bearish factors still surround BTC.

Although bulls made a show of force in the morning trading hours, Bitcoin (BTC) price is still pinned under the $35,000 resistance and unable to flip the 20-day moving average to support or secure a daily close above the level. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView since rallying to $35,400 on June 28, Bitcoin has traded in a range between $33,850 and $35,000 as the fallout from China’s crackdown on BTC mining continues to reverberate across the market.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

In addition to turning the Bitcoin mining ecosystem on its head, China’s government also turned the screw on local cryptocurrency exchanges, resulting in the closure of BTCChina. China has also effectively banned crypto derivatives trading for Huobi exchange users.

Bitfinex BTC flows come into focus while the selling continues

According to data from Glassnode, the downside price action over the past week “appears to have created a panic” for both long and short term holders “as demonstrated by the volatility in LTH-SOPR, and deep capitulation in STH-SOPR.”

Bitcoin short- and long-term holder SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said:

“STHs have realized losses only slightly less than in the March 2020 capitulation event. LTHs were willing to spend coins with an average cost basis fluctuating between $9.2k and $16.3k this week, suggesting a high degree of uncertainty.”

Further insight into the current market conditions offered by CryptoQuant highlighted Bitcoin inflows and outflows at Bitfinex as a possible gauge for market developments.

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the market has seen a “relatively high derivative to spot BTC flow,” a change that usually “implies a turning point” in the market.

CryptoQuant highlighted that the recent increase seen in the Bitcoin all exchange inflow mean (MA7) “indicates that the large deposits that caused the decline are coming to an end,” an observation that was further supported by Bitcoin outflows from Bitfinex, “which was considered the main culprit of the recent downtrend.”

The increasingly risky situation the bears now find themselves in was highlighted by crypto Twitter analyst, William Clemente III, who posted the following tweet pointing to 11 straight days of negative funding.

Bitcoin rally brings relief to the altcoins

Most altcoins saw a turnaround in prices as Bitcoin showed signs of life above $34,000, including a 15.7% gain in Ether (ETH) price that briefly lifted the top altcoin back above $2,100.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The best performance of the day was posted by Populous (PPT), which surged 100% to an intraday high at $2.67, while IoTeX (IOTX), Kusama (KSM) and Compound (COMP) all registered 33%.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.402 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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This month’s Ethereum options expiry suggests ETH’s upside is limited

Ethereum price has been in an uptrend since the start of the year but key options indicators suggest overcoming the $2,000 level will be a challenge.

To date, Ether (ETH) price has gained 85% in 2021, and options traders are still highly optimistic about the altcoin’s short-term performance.

The upcoming March 26 expiry holds over 96,000 ($172 million) call option contracts open interest between $2,240 and $3,520. Does a 25% or higher gain correctly reflect the current market sentiment, or are these traders simply over-optimistic about Ether’s odds?

Ether price in USD. Source: TradingView

Even though the effective price for the right to acquire Ether at a fixed price on March 26 is much lower, these options cost buyers at least $2 million. If Ether fails to increase by 25% from the current $1,808 price in two weeks, these $2,240 call options will be completely worthless.

Ether options aggregate open interest, March 26. Source: Bybt

As shown above, the call-put ratio is relatively balanced at 1.07, and the more bearish put options above the $1,800 strike are nonexistent. Meanwhile, bullish traders have crowded the scene above $2,240, partially because of their low price. The cost per option contract over the past couple of weeks ranged from $6 to $40.

Even if these call option holders previously bought while Ether was trading below $1,400, it would make sense to close the position and lock in profits. These options will lose value over time as the March 26 deadline arrives unless the price rises above their respective strike price.

Therefore, either these traders effectively expect Ether to break $2,240 in two weeks, or the options are being used in more complex strategies. Cointelegraph previously explained how $10,000 Ether call options are often used on calendar spreads.

The primary risk indicator for options is neutral

To assess traders’ optimism level after Ether marked a local $1,880 top on March 9, one should look at the 25% delta skew.

Whenever the options market is unwilling to take downside risk, the indicator shifts negatively. On the other hand, a positive 25% delta skew indicates traders are demanding less premium (risk) for upside protection.

3-day Ether options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

The above chart shows the indicator ranging from 5 to negative 10, which is considered a neutral zone.

Had option traders effectively been bullish, the upside-protection call options would have been trading at a premium.

There’s a possibility, as previously stated, that investors are using a more complex strategy that involves different expiry dates or strikes. Still, if these options have been bought exclusively for upside leverage, it certainly doesn’t reflect the overall sentiment as measured by the skew indicator.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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