Bullish ETH/BTC pair revives the Ethereum ‘flippening’ discussion

Bitcoin price is clinging on to $53,000 while Ethereum’s increasing bullish momentum prompted renewed discussions of an ETH flippening.

Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market saw minor losses on April 29 as the market heads into the expiry of $4.2 billion worth of (BTC) options contracts. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that since reaching a high above $56,400 on April 28, the price of Bitcoin has dropped more than 6% back down near the $53,000 support level while Ethereum (ETH) continues to trade above $2,700.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Despite the lull in market activity, signs of mainstream cryptocurrency integration continue to emerge on a near-daily basis. Earlier today Coinbase announced that users can now purchase up to $25,000 worth of cryptocurrency per day using their PayPal account.

And it’s not just financial institutions that are integrating blockchain technology to help achieve financial objectives. The government of Ethiopia revealed a partnership with Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), the research and development arm behind Cardano (ADA). The goal of the new partnership is to us blockchain technology to overhaul its education system.

ETH/BTC starts to climb higher

While Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $55,000 resistance level, the ETH/BTC pairing has started climbing higher in a move that was predicted by multiple analysts, including Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. The bullish movement in the ETH/BTC pair has also reignited conversations about Ether price evetually flipping BTC.

ETH/BTC 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

According to Élie Le Rest, partner at digital asset management firm ExoAlpha, Ether has been getting stronger against Bitcoin since the end of March with the upcoming upgrade which includes EIP 1559 being “seen as a strong catalyst of the recent ETH bull-run.”

This increased momentum is a signal for Le Rest that the market may be in a “buy the rumor, sell the news configuration that may drive the price up until EIP 1559 is released in July this year.”

Le Rest said: 

“Overall, this Ethereum upgrade is getting closer to ETH 2.0, with features like shifting from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake chain including a burning fee mechanism. Those upcoming features are a great incentive for investors to tag along, contributing to ETH’s strong recovery against BTC, but it’s still very early to put the flippening topic on the table again.”

A few altcoins make gains

The slumping price of Bitcoin weighed down the wider cryptocurrency market on Thursday with a majority of altcoins experiencing minor losses.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Some notable exceptions to the pullback include Syscoin (SYS), which at one point spiked 45% to $0.50 and the Binance Smart Chain-based Venus lending platform, whose XVS token rallied 30% to $97.90, just a dollar short of its all-time high.

Waves (WAVES), a multi-purpose blockchain platform, also experienced a 20% surge that lifted the token to a new record high at $23.43.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.035 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 48.8%.

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Bitcoin bears have a $340M lead heading into Friday’s BTC options expiry

$1.55 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on April 23 and the recent BTC crash to $51,000 has given bears a $340 million advantage.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is making a slow recovery after facing a sharp 16% correction in the early hours of April 18.

While some analysts blame a 9,000 BTC deposit at Binance, others focused on the hashrate drop caused by a coal mining accident in China. Regardless of the reason behind the $51,200 low, options market makers were forced to adjust their exposure.

Typically, arbitrage desks seek non-directional exposure, meaning they are not directly betting on BTC moving in any particular direction. However, neutralizing options exposure usually requires a dynamic hedge, meaning positions must be adjusted according to Bitcoin’s price.

These arbitrage desks’ risk adjustments usually involve selling BTC when the market drops, which as a result, adds further pressure to long liquidations. Therefore, it makes sense to understand the current level of risk as the April 23 options expiry approaches. We will attempt to dissect whether or not bears will benefit from a $50,000 BTC price.

The initial outlook seems balanced

Before the April 18 correction, BTC accumulated 74% gains in three months as it marked a $64,900 all-time high. Thus, it is natural for investors to approach protective options more heavily.

Bitcoin April 23 aggregate options. Source: Bybt

While the neutral-to-bullish call (buy) option provides the buyer with upside price protection, the opposite happens with the more bearish put (sell) options. By measuring each price level’s risk exposure, traders can gain insight into how bullish or bearish traders are positioned.

The total number of contracts set to expire on April 23 totals 27,320 BTC, which is $1.55 billion at the current $56,500 price. However, bears and bulls are apparently balanced as the call (buy) options total 45% of the open interest.

Bears have a decent advantage after the recent crash

While the initial picture seems neutral, one must consider that the $64,000 call (buy) and higher options are almost worthless, with less than three days left before expiry. A more bearish situation emerges when these 6,400 bullish contracts currently trading below $50 each are removed.

The neutral-to-bearish put options dominate with 70% of the remaining 19,930 BTC contracts. The open interest stands at $1.13 billion considering the current Bitcoin price, and this gives the bears a $450 million advantage.

One can see that bulls were caught off-guard as Bitcoin retraced 13% after the April 14 all-time high. A meager 3,000 BTC call options are left below $58,000, which is only 24% of the total.

Meanwhile, the neutral-to-bearish put options amount to 9,000 BTC contracts at $55,000 and higher strikes. This difference represents a $340 million open interest that favors bears.

As things currently stand, the expiries between $57,000 and $64,000 are reasonably balanced, which suggests that the bears have an incentive to keep the price down on April 23.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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$51K Bitcoin price not a problem as ‘structurally, nothing has changed’

On-chain data points toward a bullish future for Bitcoin despite today’s sell-off to $50,400.

On March 25, concerns surrounding the record-breaking $6.1 billion (BTC) options expiry this Friday sparked an overnight sell-off that dropped Bitcoin price to $50,400.

The downturn was not a surprise for many traders and some called for a possible test of the $47,000 support level. Despite Bitcoin’s loss of bullish momentum, several derivatives indicators, including a bullish futures premium and a neutral skew, suggest that the price may not drop below $50,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

While technical indicators paint a mixed picture of Bitcoin’s short-term price action, the asset retains strong fundamentals today media reported that sovereign wealth funds have begun inquiring about opening positions in BTC. This points to growing global adoption for BTC and the cryptocurrency sector as a whole as new Ether (ETH) trusts are also being established to serve institutional investors.

Analysts suggest the market is oversold

Glassnode co-founder and CTO Rafael Schultze-Kraft recently highlighted a possible dip lower based on low realized price distribution between $51,100 and $54,000.

In a follow-up tweet after Thursday’s drop, Schultze-Kraft reaffirmed that the dip was “not unexpected” and in his view, the overall outlook remains bullish.

Schultze-Kraft said:

“Structurally, nothing has changed. I have yet to see a data point that points long-term bearish.”

Further evidence of a possible turnaround in the near-term can be found when looking at Bitcoin’s liquid supply change, which decreased by the largest amount in more than 6 months.

Bitcoin liquid supply change. Source: Glassnode

This suggests that a large number of BTC have been pulled out of the circulating supply and deposited into longer-term storage wallets as bulls prepare for the price to trend higher.

Altcoins sink lower

A majority of the altcoins were hit hard by the Bitcoin sell-off as traders across the market exited positions in an attempt to hold on to their recent gains.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The one stand-out among altcoins is Aragon (ANT), whose recent pivot toward DeFi and nonfungible tokens has helped to spark a 50% rally to $13.56.

Holochain (HOT) and Balancer (BAL) have also managed to put up a positive gain of 5.2% and 6.4% respectively.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.62 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 59.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Smashes $15 Billion, CME Registers Over $33 Million in ETH Contracts

Following the revelation that Tesla now owns $1.5 billion in bitcoin, crypto spot markets across the board skyrocketed. Data shows that crypto derivatives markets also saw significant demand as bitcoin futures open interest tapped $15 billion on Monday. Moreover, this week was the start of ethereum futures on CME Group’s exchange, and ether-based futures registered […]
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FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows

In the last 30 days, FTX Token rallied 105% as its exchange surpassed BitMEX and Deribit’s open interest, but is there room for further upside?

FTX is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange backed by Alameda Research, a quantitative trading firm and crypto liquidity provider. 

The exchange launched in April 2019 and offered the usual spot trading, inverse swaps and futures contracts that can be found at other major platforms. By early 2020, the exchange launched its daily and weekly binary BTC options markets.

FTT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

FTT is the exchange’s native token and it’s issued on the Ethereum blockchain. FTT stakers are granted a trading fee discount based on a tiered system and other benefits include bonus votes in their polls and increased airdrop rewards.

The first airdrop took place in August 2020 when 500 million Serum (SRM) tokens were distributed to FTT holders. To differentiate itself from competitors, the users’ collateral is shared in one universal stablecoin wallet.

This means traders can reduce their margin requirements drastically. Numerous leveraged tokens mimicking leveraged ETF stocks have also been listed, including 3x Long Bitcoin and 3x Short Litecoin.

Leveraged tokens are derived from the exchange’s perpetual swap contracts and operate as tradeable ERC-20 tokens that can be withdrawn and traded. These innovative products have made the FTX a popular exchange among investors, as reflected by its rising futures contracts open interest.

Global markets aggregate open interest. Source: coinalyze.net

As shown above, the figure grew by 340% over the past six months, surpassing the $2 billion mark to vastly outperform more established exchanges.

In November 2020, the exchange ventured into tokenized equity trading, albeit not available for its U.S. citizens. Its partner CM-Equity custody the tokens redeemable for the underlying stocks. Interestingly, it’s allowed its users to buy less than one share, which is particularly useful for high-priced stocks like Amazon ($AMZN) and Google ($GOOG).

In December, FTX continued to innovate by launching pre-IPO futures contracts for AirBNB and Coinbase. These contracts allow traders to speculate on what price those companies will list on a stock exchange. The exchange also offers trading for thematic products, including a basket of cannabis-related listed stocks.

By creating multiple markets with enough liquidity provided by its market-making structure, the exchange was able to gather attention from a new client base. More recently, a Wall Street Bets index was launched, including GameStop ($GME), Dogecoin (DOGE), and iShares Silver Trust ($SLV).

Backed by these popular offerings, FTX Token (FTT) price has doubled since the beginning of 2021.

FTX Token (FTT) token price at Binance. Source: TradingView

To further incentivize holding the token, FTX repurchases and burns 33% of all fees generated from the exchange and 10% of its insurance fund net additions. This process will continue until half of the initial 350 million supply are destroyed.

While this may appear like a deflationary schedule, there are 31.25 million tokens allocated to the team, representing at least 17.8% of the targeted 175 million circulating supply. Regardless, considering the current $11.70 token price, its market capitalization after the burn process is completed surpasses $2 billion.

This number represents a 45% discount to Binance Coin’s (BNB) projected 2031 market capitalization, according to data from Messari. This is also roughly in line with the exchanges’ aggregate open interest $4.26 billion to $2.0 billion difference .

Interestingly, Binance has an undisclosed investment in FTX, and this may be creating fewer incentives for direct competition.

Currently, it seems that the market is pricing both tokens at the same valuation. Binance appears to be expanding its ecosystem via its Binance Smart Chain decentralized exchange, their blockchain projects incubator and a successful token launchpad platform.

FTX, on the other hand, is focused on being the market-leader of derivatives products innovation.

Currently all of these projects are producing value for token holders and with the burn schedule and rising popularity among derivatives exchanges it’s possible that FTT will continue to see further price appreciation.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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