Bitcoin-related altcoins surge as BTC ETF rumors spread across the sector

Rumors of an imminent Bitcoin ETF approval are boosting sentiment and prices across the market, but caution is warranted, as it could turn into a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news event.

On Oct. 14, bulls flexed their muscles and showed their intent to push the price of Bitcoin (BTC) closer to its $65,900 all-time high. One reason for the move is the steady chatter about the possibility of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by the end of October. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $54,103 on Oct. 13, the price of Bitcoin rallied 8.2% to an intraday high of $58,532 on Oct. 14 as the ETF discussion made fresh rounds on Crypto Twitter.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The spike above $58,500 is also significant because it marks a 100% increase in the price of BTC since bottoming at $29,193 on July 20, signaling a strong recovery and increasing demand.

Bitcoin’s price performance is also a signal that market participants are back in accumulation mode, a fact that is backed by data from Glassnode showing that the amount of Bitcoin held in wallets of all sizes has been on the rise since the price briefly dipped below $29,000 in mid-June.

Bitcoin hodl waves. Source: Glassnode

Badger DAO brings Bitcoin to DeFi

The rising price and growing bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin have also helped bring extra attention to Bitcoin-related projects that aim to facilitate its integration into the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem and add smart contract capabilities to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

One beneficiary is Badger DAO, a decentralized autonomous organization focused on building products and infrastructure around Bitcoin’s utility in DeFi.

Data from and TradingView shows that since Oct. 1, the price of its BADGER token surged 187% from a low of $15.69 to a daily high of $45.09 on Oct. 14 as its 24-hour trading volume increased by 147% to $162 million.

BADGER/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The surge in the price of BADGER coincides with the token listing on crypto exchange Coinbase Pro.

Related: CME Bitcoin futures open interest hits 8-month high, greater than when BTC price was at $65K

Stacks brings smart contracts to Bitcoin

Another Bitcoin-focused project that has seen a bump in its token price is Stacks, a layer-one blockchain solution aiming to bring smart contracts and decentralized applications to the Bitcoin network.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for Stacks’ STX coin on Oct. 11, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. STX price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for STX began to pick up on Oct. 11 and reached a high of 82 around five hours before the price increased 33% over the next two days.

Overall, the ongoing discussions about a Bitcoin ETF continue to help drive speculation and price action across the crypto market, especially for tokens associated with the top cryptocurrency. But a word of caution is warranted, as there is still the possibility that this could turn into a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news type of event.

It’s also worth noting that the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF has been discussed as far back as 2013, and it was one of the driving forces behind the 2017–2018 bull cycle, so it would be wise to wait for an official announcement from a regulatory body before assuming that the arrival of a BTC ETF is guaranteed.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price pushes through $51K, extending bulls’ short-term target to $56K

BTC price broke out of its multi-month long range, securing a daily close above $50,000 and prompting traders to extend their short-term target to $56,000.

The early morning momentum that pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above $50,000 on Oct. 5 continued throughout the day after bulls took control of the market and bid the price of BTC up near the $51,900.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after a brief period of consolidation, bulls resumed their drive higher and many analysts are watching to see if BTC price holds the $50,000 level as support.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Since touching $40,885 on Sept. 29, BTC price has rallied 26.8% and reignited traders’ hope for a year-end close above the $100,000 mark, a level which has become the de facto price target for the end of 2021.

Hold your horses, bulls stil need to reclaim $55,000

Tuesday’s price action was a welcome sight for David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, who saw the 10% increase on Oct. 1 as a short squeeze that had “no genuine reason to trigger unless it had been fabricated by a large player that wanted to profit from the quiet illiquid market environment.”

Despite the move higher, Lifchitz warned that BTC is not out of the woods yet even though “technical indicators are all pointing to a move up, they have been tricked by the sudden spike of October 1st, just 3 days ago.”

Lifchitz said:

“At this point there are 2 possibilities: either bulls get back in the game, push BTC (the barometer…) above $55,000 and we can expect a reach toward the $64,000 all-time high soon after, or they remain skeptical about the move from $44,000 to $48,000 in just 2 minutes and may not have enough firepower to go past $53,000-$55,000, at which point BTC could just go back in the middle of its 5-month-old $40,000-$50,000 range.”

Related: Bitcoin price is back at $50K, but exactly how ‘bullish’ are the bulls?

Long term range high targets $320,000 and above

A more macro, long-term perspective was provided by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Pentoshi’, who posted the following chart highlighting t multi-year trading range for BTC.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Pentoshi said:

“Range trading is clean but when BTC trends hard, it trends. These are my ranges on the macro. Looking to take the range highs.”

According to the chart provided, BTC price could reach a range high of $323,216 sometime in 2022.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.229 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 43.5%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price drop to $37K has analysts wary of calling a ‘trend change’

Bitcoin price sold off below $37,000 shortly after topping $40,500, leading analysts to caution that bears still have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Bull market optimism returned to the cryptocurrency market on July 26 after Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied above the $40,000 level for the first time in over six weeks.

Today’s rally to $40,581 was a continuation of the July 25 breakout which saw BTC price rocket to $48,110 at Binance af a short squeeze resulted in nearly $500 million in shorts being liquidated in just two minutes. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC spiked to an intraday high at $40,581 on Monday before pulling back to $37,500 as bulls look to flip this resistance zone back to support in preparation for a further move higher.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

While the move higher has the mark of a trend change and has prompted some analysts to proclaim the bull market is back on track, on-chain data and the perpetual funding rates do not fully concur with this point of view. Especially when one considers that the current breakout may have only been the result of a massive short squeeze.

Factors that could reignite the bull market

According to Élie Le Rest, partner at digital asset management firm ExoAlpha, the recently denied rumor that Amazon would accept cryptocurrency payments have the potential to have a similar effect as the 2020 revelation from PayPal that it would integrate cryptocurrencies. Le Rest said that if the Amazon news turns out to be true, this “could be the catalyst to ignite a bull run in H2 of 2021.”

As Bitcoin price pushed above the $35,000 level on July 25, “more than a billion dollars of shorts got liquidated in the past 24 hours, with the bulk of the liquidation occurring in less than 1 hour” according to Le Rest, who also said, “the current market move could be sustained during the week by volumes coming from players having waited for a more directional trend on Bitcoin since the end of May.”

Le Rest said:

“To validate this directional trend, Bitcoin has to break out of the $30,000-$40,000 range it has been stuck into for 2 months. Maintaining Bitcoin over the $40,000 level would signal that the “bear market” is over and the bull-run may resume.”

If Bitcoin is able to maintain its current momentum, Le Rest said “as many expect, Bitcoin could get back on track with the Stock to Flow model and reach the $100,000 mark by year-end.”

On-chain data is not so bullish

Caution is warranted against being overly bullish and data from Glassnode suggests that several bearish threats remain valid. 

When analyzing the directional bias of the futures markets, Glassnode found that “perpetual funding rates have continued to trade negative,” which “indicates the net bias remains short Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin futures perpetual funding rate for all exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said:

“This metric in particular helps us identify that Monday’s price rally is likely associated with an overall short squeeze, with funding rates continuing to trade at even more negative levels despite price rallying +30%.”

Glassnode also pointed to Bitcoin on-chain activity and highlighted that “in direct contrast to the volatility in spot and derivatives markets, the transaction volume and on-chain activity remains extremely quiet.”

Bitcoin entity-adjusted total transfer volume. Source: Glassnode

Overall, how on-chain transfer volume responds to the recent price action in Bitcoin will provide better insight into where the market is headed, but as noted by Glassnode, “it remains to be seen whether on-chain volumes start to pick up in response to recent volatile price-action.”

Related: DeFi tokens book double-digit gains after Bitcoin rallies above $39,000

Altcoins follow Bitcoin’s lead

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin’s recovery above $40,000 also helped spark strong rallies in most altcoins.

Ether (ETH) gained of 11% to hit a daily high at $2,433, while Dogecoin (DOGE) posted a 7% gain and trades at $0.208.

Other notable gainers include a 64% gain for Strike (STRK), a 55% rally in Venus (XVS) and a 20% breakout in VeChain Thor (VTHO) and Ankr (ANKR).

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.46 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 47.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Institutional demand for Bitcoin evaporates as BTC struggles below $31K

A lack of institutional demand and several bearish factors are complicating all efforts to pull Bitcoin price back above the $31,000 level.

The rocky road that Bitcoin (BTC) has been on for the past two months continued on July 19 as a widely predicted move downwards materialized in the early hours on Monday and dropped the price of BTC below $31,000. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that a wave of mid-day selling pushed the price of BTC to a low of $30,400 before bulls arrived to provide support and lift the price back to $30,850.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The market as a whole continues to face an uphill battle as the miner exodus following China’s crackdown on the mining industry has led to the fourth consecutive negative adjustment in the Bitcoin mining difficulty, a figure which has fallen by almost half since mid-May.

Heavy volume near $31,700

Insights into the current state of the Bitcoin network were provided in the newest report from Glassnode which set the stage by looking at the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a metric that identifies on-chain volume profiles across different price groupings.

Bitcoin UTXO realized price distribution. Source: Glassnode

Current data shows that 10.5% of the circulating supply of BTC has transacted in the range between $31,000 and $34,300, the highest level seen since a price of $11,000.

While this indicates a healthy level of volume at the current level, it’s important to note that should BTC price break lower, the next significant support levels are at $26,500, $23,300 and $18,800.

Institutional appetite for BTC dissolves

The market-wide pullback in May has led to a significant decline in interest from institutional investors, who now appear to be in risk management mode as BTC price struggles to climb higher.

Evidence of the decline in interest can be found by looking at the market price of GBTC, which continues to trade at an -11.0% to -15.3% discount, or by observing the net inflows to the Purpose ETF which has slowed down significantly. Data from Glassnode shows that the ETF saw a net outflow of -90.76 BTC, which is its largest outflow since mid-May.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

Although institutional activity has been muted, on-chain deposits of BTC to exchanges continue with more than 28,700 BTC, the largest inflow in over a month and a half, taking place on July 16th.

Bitcoin all-exchange inflow. Source: CryptoQuant

Inflows during times of consolidation and corrections are often seen as a negative developments as they can result in increased selling which can lead to a short-term price breakdown.

Glassnode also pointed to the net inflow of 1,780 BTC to over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks in the past two weeks as “moving against the structural trend of outflows in place since November 2020.”

Total Bitcoin balance held by OTC desks. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode said:

“It remains to be seen whether this net inflow is just a short-term impact, or the early signs of a reversal in the balance of supply and demand.”

Related: Institutions cautious as crypto products post weakest volume since October

Covid-19 concerns take their toll on the markets ag

The cryptocurrency market wasn’t the only market that faced downward pressure on July 19 as a surge in Covid-19 cases led to a pullback in global financial markets.

The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ all closed the day down 1.59%, 2.09% and 1.06% respectively.

Out of the top 200 cryptocurrencies, the only two notable performances of the day were a 24% gain for Bitcoin Standard Hashrate Token (BTCST) and a 17% rally from Dash (DASH).

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.245 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.3%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin dominance teeters at 50% as ETH, altcoins gain traction

The Bitcoin dominance index has collapsed by 20 percentage points since the start of 2021. ETH, BNB and more speculative altcoin bets have seen their dominance rise over the same period.

Bitcoin (BTC) dominance briefly fell below 50% last week for the first time since January 2018, sending a strong signal that more speculative bets on altcoins were on the rise.

The Bitcoin dominance index, which measures BTC’s market capitalization relative to the broader cryptocurrency market, reached a low of 49.35% on Thursday, according to CoinMarketCap. At the beginning of 2021, BTC dominance was 70.68%.

Ethereum (ETH), meanwhile, accounted for nearly 15% of the overall market at its peak on Thursday. ETH dominance is up nearly 4 percentage points since the start of 2021.

ETH has outperformed BTC over the past seven days, charting an impressive 9.5% return. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down 10% from its previous all-time high whereas Bitcoin has corrected over 20%.

Binance Coin (BNB) has also seen its share of the overall market grow steadily this year, from 0.71% on January 1 to 4.17% on April 25. BNB is being supported by several fundamental factors, including growing adoption of the Binance platform and a coordinated burn of $600 million worth of tokens in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies outside the top ten have seen their share of the overall market inflate from less than 11% to over 18% since January 1.

Despite registering multiple record highs this year, Bitcoin’s dominance relative to altcoins has declined sharply. Source: CoinMarketCap

Commenting on the market shuffle, Meltem Demirors, the chief strategy officer of crypto investment manager CoinShares, said she is “seeing a lot of folks chasing returns by moving further out on the risk spectrum.”

Demirors also observed that 94 cryptocurrencies now have a market capitalization of $1 billion or more. At the time of writing, that figure had fallen to 87, according to CoinMarketCap. An additional seven projects were valued at $900 million or more.

Analysts are divided about the pace and timing of the so-called alt season, a period of the market cycle where many altcoins surge against the dollar and Bitcoin. Ben Lilly, co-founder and analyst at Jarvis Labs, told Cointelegraph last week that he doesn’t believe now is the best time to reallocate from BTC to altcoins from a risk-adjusted perspective.

Meanwhile, an analysis from Filbfilb, co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite, concluded that we are now approaching the major boom period for altcoins.

The current market cap for altcoins is $937 billion.

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