Data suggests the strong US dollar makes Bitcoin weaker argument is flawed

Analysts and traders are linking Bitcoin’s bearish turn with the growing strength of the U.S. dollar, but data suggests otherwise.

At the moment, there seems to be a general assumption that when the U.S. dollar value increases against other global major currencies, as measured by the DXY index, the impact on Bitcoin (BTC) is negative.

For the past few weeks, analysts and influencers have been issuing alerts about this inverse correlation, which held true until March 2021.

However, no matter if you track a 20-day or 60-day correlation, the situation reversed over the past three months.

Dollar Index DXY (blue) vs. Bitcoin (orange, logarithmic). Source: TradingView

The correlation indicator (red) has been ranging above 50% since mid-March, indicating that both DXY and Bitcoin have generally followed a similar trend.

The dollar strengthened after the Fed speech

As Cointelegraph reported, May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation hitting a 13-year high, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation could run higher than planned in the short term. Still, he clarified that “longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at a place that is consistent with our goal.”

The market gave the Fed a ‘vote of confidence,’ causing the U.S. dollar to appreciate versus major global currencies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped 8% to a $35,300 low on June 18, further reinforcing the inverse correlation thesis.

Related: Forget Elon, here’s why Bitcoin traders should be watching the U.S. Dollar Index instead

Correlation is a longer-term indicator, not an intraday metric

Even though pundits and influencers love to dissect those events and extrapolate 1-day movements, one should analyze a more extended timeframe to understand the potential impacts of the DXY index on the Bitcoin price.

Dollar Index DXY (blue) vs. Bitcoin (orange, logarithmic). Source: TradingView

Notice how both markers weakened during May, after a relatively flat period in late April. It seems premature, at least, to call the recent decoupling an inverse correlation. Multiple forces could be behind Bitcoin’s failure to sustain a $40,000 support on June 16 and the subsequent price correction.

For starters, Liu He, Vice Premier of China and a member of the all-powerful eight-person politburo, led a meeting on preventing and controlling financial risks on May 24. Among the decisions was a crackdown on Bitcoin mining and trading activities.

Bitcoin’s hash rate dropped to the lowest level since November 2020 as miners are starting to move away from China. Huobi temporarily suspended futures trading to Chinese users, while Futures platform Bybit revealed it would have closed accounts registered with Chinese phone numbers.

Furthermore, on May 26, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said the regulators are looking forward to working with fellow regulators and Congress to fill gaps in investor protection in crypto markets.

Therefore, the potential U.S. regulation and the current China crackdown on mining and trading activities seem vital to Bitcoin’s recent underperformance. Once those issues are no longer threats, the gap that has been created from DXY’s positive move could fade away.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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‘No debate’ that Bitcoin will increase 20X says gold industry insider

Dan Tapiero told Anthony Pompliano that $15 trillion in institutional capital could flow into Bitcoin, pushing prices as high as $500,000.

Gold Bullion International co-founder Dan Tapiero believes that it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin’s price surges into the six-figure threshold. 

Speaking to Anthony Pompliano on the Pomp Podcast, Tapiero asserted that in terms of price appreciation Bitcoin is the king, even though he believes investors should own both gold and Bitcoin:

“In the next five years, I can see gold at $4,000, so that’s double. But if gold is at $4,000, Bitcoin is probably somewhere between $300,000 and $500,000, so that’s a 20, 30x.”

He went on to add, “I don’t really think that anyone in the gold world […] they are not going to debate that.”

Tapiero believes that institutional investors and finance whales are likely to invest between five to 15 percent of their portfolios in Bitcoin and noted that sector was currently worth $100 trillion:

“That’s a huge chunk. I mean, 15% of $100 trillion is $15 trillion.”

Bitcoin is a hedge for the fiat system, he explained, and once its market cap is in the trillions of dollars, it will become easier to handle for larger investors, similar to gold.

But gold is a store of value, and that is only one aspect of what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is an entire network, and that’s why he believes it will be much bigger than gold:

“There is no question that Bitcoin is going to outperform gold.”

Other analysts are similarly bullish about Bitcoin, with Off the Chain Capital chief investment officer Brian Estes telling Reuters today that it “is not a stretch” for BTC to surpass $100,000 in one year, and predicted that it could go as high as $288,000 by the end of 2021.

CNBC host Jim Cramer also believes in the future of Bitcoin, as revealed on another podcast with Pompliano. Cramer, who was a Bitcoin skeptic during the 2017 bull market, recently stated that he had since realized that Bitcoin is a good hedge against inflation and also one that his kids can understand,:

“I think that my kids, when they get my inheritance, won’t feel comfortable with gold, and will feel comfortable with crypto.”

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