Fetch.ai ignores the Bitcoin-led market meltdown by notching a 60% gain

FET’s price spiked by 60% in an otherwise red market thanks to a growing number of real-world use cases and protocol upgrades.

The real-world adoption of blockchain technology is a slowly developing process. It requires the proper use cases and a willing public open to new experiences when venturing outside of their comfort zone.

An increasing number of real-world applications appear to be the motivating factor behind the recent gains seen in Fetch.ai (FET), a protocol focused on building an open access, token-based decentralized machine learning network to support the smart infrastructure being built around the digital economy.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $0.658 on Sept. 6, the price of FET spiked 70% to $1.12 on Sept. 7 — a new record high. Meanwhile, FET’s 24-hour trading volume surged 538% to $590 million.

FET/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The rapid increase in price and trading volume comes as the project tests a new multi-modal transport application called “Deep Parking,” an application built with AI and blockchain technology that helps automobile drivers locate empty parking spaces.

The protocol also achieved a “global first” on Sept. 7 when an on-board Fetch.ai agent successfully interacted with Datarella’s self-sovereign identity, allowing the driver to rent a scooter from Tier Mobility.

Related: Fetch.ai launches NFT platform for AI-generated art

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for FET on Sep. 3, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points, including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. FET price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for FET began to pick up on Sept. 3 and reached a high of 71 around 48 hours before its price increased by 70% over the next two days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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El Salvador purchases first 200 BTC, President Bukele confirms

El Salvador is the first country in the world to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. Despite opposition from local groups, the government believes cryptocurrency will be a net positive for the economy and society.

El Salvador president Nayib Bukele confirmed Monday that his government has purchased its first 200 Bitcoin (BTC) ahead of the Sept. 7 rollout of a new law set to make the cryptocurrency legal tender. 

“Our brokers will be buying a lot more as the deadline approaches,” Bukele said, referring to the Sept. 7 timetable for fully implementing the new BTC legislation.

The purchase is part of a new $150 million Bitcoin fund passed last week by El Salvador’s Congress. The fund will be used to facilitate conversions from BTC to United States dollars in the lead-up to the new law being implemented. At current prices, the BTC purchase was worth just over $10.36 million.

In June of this year, El Salvador became the first country in the world to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. Although the decision was met with praise by the Bitcoin community, detractors from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund warned that the new strategy isn’t a good idea. More recently, internal opposition, especially among retirees, saw hundreds across the country protest against the new Bitcoin Law.

Recent: El Salvador president announces infrastructure already being built ahead of country’s Bitcoin adoption

Perhaps surprisingly, Bank of America recently outlined at least four potential benefits to El Salvador accepting Bitcoin. In a report published in July, the bank said the country’s adoption of BTC could streamline remittances, promote financial digitization, provide greater consumer choice and open the country to foreign investors.

The new Bitcoin Law gives Salvadorans the ability to hold Bitcoin as part of a long-term investment strategy or withdraw it in cash at any of the 200 ATMs installed across the country. The country is also building infrastructure to support a state-issued Bitcoin wallet, dubbed Chivo. The Chivo wallet will have its own ATM that allows citizens to withdraw cash 24 hours a day without paying commissions.

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‘Conservative’ BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K

The supply shock valuation model delivers an extra reason to be long-term bullish on upward price movement.

Bitcoin (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin according to one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.”

In a tweet on Sep. 5, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.

Bitcoin price plays catch-up with metrics

While Bitcoin has still not established $50,000 as firm support, on-chain metrics have been much more firmly bullish for some time.

Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.

Supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first glance, as Woo uses it to effectively “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.”

“In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he explained in a blog post last month.

The valuation model additionally uses an algorithm to compare similar supply and demand situations to now, thus producing a fair price estimate.

“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged in the tweet, referring to the ratio of coins in cold storage compared to on exchanges being at record levels.

The accompanying chart captures when BTC price moved with and without any shifts in investor intent.

Bitcoin supply shock valuation model. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

$50,000 first hurdle for bulls

Bitcoin supply shock is an oft-used phrase in the current market thanks to 2021 being the year after a block subsidy halving event.

Related: More like ‘shock-to-flow’ — BTC price hits bull trigger as mystery buyers scoop up supply

With miners now unlocking just 6.25 BTC per block, so far, Bitcoin has behaved broadly similarly to previous post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.

The conservative $55,000 minimum target nonetheless remains above another set of monthly close minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September will have a minimum monthly close of $43,000.

Thereafter, however, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a tight range throughout the weekend.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
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Gold, bond portfolios are ‘naked’ without Bitcoin, Bloomberg strategist asserts

The declaration appears as Bitcoin pops back above $50,000, with its addition in a Gold-Bond portfolio outperforming the S&P 500 index.

What is protecting an investment portfolio from potential stock market volatility? As per Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, a merged exposure of Bitcoin (BTC), gold, and government bonds.

The senior commodity strategist, who sees BTC heading to $100,000, pitted derivatives in a new report representing the three safe-haven assets against the performance of the S&P 500 index, finding that the trio has been outperforming the benchmark Wall Street index at least since the start of 2020.

Bitcoin-Gold-Bonds performance against the S&P 500 index. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

The Bitcoin-Gold-Bonds index took data from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares 20+ T- Bond ETF (TLT). The three funds enable investors to gain exposure in the market without requiring to hold/own the physical asset.

Bitcoin more profitable than gold and bonds

McGlone noted that Bitcoin did some heavy lifting in making investors’ risk-off strategy successful, adding that their portfolios “appear increasingly naked” without the flagship cryptocurrency even if they remain exposed to gold and bonds.

The statement took cues from the performance of Bitcoin, gold, and the 10-year US Treasury yield against the prospect of rising quantitative easing and debt-to-GDP levels. Since March 2020, Bitcoin has risen almost 1,190%, which comes to be extensively better than spot gold’s 25.93% spike.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView.com

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has jumped from its record low of 0.33% to 1.326% in the same period.

However, despite a healthy spike, the returns on the benchmark government bond have come to be lower than the core U.S. inflation of 5.4%, suggesting that investors who hold bonds as safety against risky equities are making an inflation-adjusted loss.

US consumer price inflation rose to 5.4% in July. Source: Forex Live

As a result, lower yields have created avenues for corporates to borrow at meager rates for expansion, thus giving equities a boost. Additionally, investors in the secondary markets have started moving their capital into non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, anticipating higher payouts.

Yield rebound ahead?

Former bond investor Bill Gross, who built Pimco into a $2 trillion asset management firm, noted that bond yields have “nowhere to go but up.”

The retired fund manager said that the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields would rise to 2% over the next 12 months. Therefore, bond prices will fall due to their inverse correlation with yields, resulting in a loss of about 3% for investors who bought debts all across 2020 and 2021.

Federal Reserve purchased 60% of net US government debt issuance over the past year with its $120 billion a month asset purchase program to boost the US economy. However, in August, the U.S. central bank announced that it would slow down its bond-buying by the end of this year, given the prospects of its 2% inflation rate target and economic growth.

“How willing, therefore, will private markets be to absorb this future 60 per cent in mid-2022 and beyond,” questioned Gross, adding that the US bond market would turn into an “investment garbage.”

“Intermediate to long-term bond funds are in that trash receptacle for sure.”

Rising rates could threaten to draw capital out of overvalued U.S. stocks. At the same time, as a risk-off trade, funds could also start flowing into the Bitcoin market. Julian Emanuel, the chief equity and derivatives strategist at brokerage firm BTIG, shed light on the same in his interview with CNBC in February. Excerpts:

“This is the environment where that catch-up trade is going to show its ability […] You’re coming from such a low absolute level of rates that higher rates actually is likely to be supportive for alternatives like Bitcoin.”

Related: 3 reasons why a Bitcoin ETF approval will be a game changer for BTC price

To McGlone, the capital inflow into Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum, would be about finding the next-best investment opportunity. He said that digital assets may represent the “higher-beta potential,” adding:

“We see Ethereum on course toward $5,000 and $100,000 for Bitcoin.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Price analysis 9/3: BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, UNI, LINK

This week’s sharp rally in Bitcoin and Ether signals that bulls are back in control and altcoins are likely to follow.

Bitcoin (BTC) finally broke above the $50,500 resistance and Ether (ETH) has risen above the $4,000 mark. This suggests that there is growing interest in cryptocurrencies and several legacy finance companies are initiating steps to tap into this increasing demand.

One of the world’s largest independent asset managers, Franklin Templeton, has posted fresh job applications for medium to senior-level positions in crypto trading and research, according to Linkedin job postings.

Meanwhile, in Japan, financial conglomerate SBI Holdings is planning to set up one of the first crypto funds in the country by the end of November. Tomoya Asakura, the director and senior managing executive officer at SBI, said that the launch of a second fund will be explored depending on the success of the first one.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

While crypto traders are cheering the recent run-up in several altcoins, JPMorgan analysts have warned their clients that the altcoin rally and nonfungible tokens (NFT) are getting frothy.

The analysts said that the altcoins share of the crypto market trading surged from 22% at the beginning of August, to 33%, which is high compared to historical standards. They believe the reason is “froth and retail investor ‘mania’ rather than a reflection of a structural uptrend.”

Could Bitcoin sustain above $50,500 and resume its uptrend or will altcoins remain in focus? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The bears successfully defended the $50,500 resistance on Sep. 2 but they could not pull and sustain the price back below the downtrend line. This could have attracted buying from the bulls who have pushed Bitcoin above $50,500 today.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers sustain the price above $50,500, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $60,000. This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls can thrust the price above it, the pair could challenge the all-time high at $64,854.

If bulls drive the relative strength index (RSI) above the downtrend line, it will invalidate the negative divergence. That along with the upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($47,584) indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 200-day simple moving average ($46,083). That could pull the price down to $42,451.67.

ETH/USDT

Ether picked up momentum after breaking above $3,377.89 and hit the $4,000 mark today. If bulls sustain the price above this psychological level, the biggest altcoin could challenge the all-time high at $4,372.72.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($3,344) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that bulls are in control. If buyers push the price above $4,372.72, the ETH/USDT pair could start its journey toward the critical level at $5,000.

This may not be easy as bears are likely to have other plans. They are likely to mount a stiff resistance in the $4,000 to $4,372.72 zone. If the price turns down from this zone and breaks below $3,700, the pair may drop to the 20-day EMA.

A strong rebound off this support will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish. The buyers will then try to resume the up-move. Conversely, a break and close below the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that bulls may be losing their grip.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the $3 mark on Sep. 2 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick. Although the price dipped back below $2.97 today, the bulls bought the dip and are again trying to drive the price above $3.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A breakout and close above $3.10 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then rally to $3.50. The 20-day EMA ($2.58) favors the bulls but the negative divergence on the RSI indicates that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

If bulls fail to drive the price above the overhead resistance, the pair may drop to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level for the bulls to defend. A strong rebound off it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive.

Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA may pull the price to the breakout level at $2.47. A break below this support could start a deeper correction.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin (BNB) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($456) and the overhead resistance at $518.90. The long wick on the Sep. 2 candlestick suggests that bears are selling above $500 but the positive sign is that bulls are not giving up much ground.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will again try to push and sustain the price above $518.90. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $600. This psychological level may act as a resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the rally may extend to $680.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and dips below the 20-day EMA, the pair may slide to $433. A break below this level will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair may then decline to the 200-day SMA ($375).

XRP/USDT

The bulls pushed XRP above the downtrend line on Sep. 2, invalidating the developing bearish descending triangle pattern. The bears tried to pull and sustain the price below the downtrend line today but failed.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls sustain the price above the downtrend line, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $1.35. This level may act as a resistance and if the price turns down from it, the pair may trade between $1.05 and $1.35 for a few days.

The 20-day EMA ($1.15) has turned up and the RSI has risen above 64, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. A breakout and close above $1.35 could clear the path for a rally to $1.66. The bears will have to pull the price below $1.05 to signal a comeback.

SOL/USDT

The bears attempted to stall Solana’s (SOL) uptrend at $130 but the bulls were in no mood to relent. The buyers did not allow the price to break below the psychological support at $100.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buying resumed on Sep. 2 and the bulls have extended the SOL/USDT pair to a new all-time high today. Vertical rallies are rarely sustainable and they usually result in sharp declines. The RSI above 88 also indicates the pair is overextended in the short term.

If the price turns down from the current level or $150, the first support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $115.75.

A strong rebound off this level will suggest strength and increase the possibility of a break above $150. The next target on the upside is $166.97. On the contrary, a break below $115.75 could pull the price down to the 50% retracement level at $106.29.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.28) on Sept. 1 and bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line of the falling wedge pattern on Sept. 2. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick showed that bears were selling at higher levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair has bounced off the 20-day EMA and the bulls have pushed the price above the wedge. If buyers sustain the price above $0.31, the pair could rally to $0.35. This level is likely to act as a strong resistance.

If the price turns down from $0.35, the pair may again drop to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off it will suggest that the sentiment is positive. A breakout and close above $0.35 could clear the path for an up-move to $0.45.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair may drop to the support line of the wedge.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been sustaining above the breakout level at $28.60 for the past three days, indicating the start of a new uptrend. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate advantage to buyers.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls drive the price above $33.84, the DOT/USDT pair could start its northward journey toward $41.40 and then to the pattern target at $46.83.

On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, the price may retest the breakout level at $28.60. If bulls flip this level into support, it may act as a launchpad for the next leg of the up-move.

A break and close below the 20-day EMA ($27.12) will be the first sign that the current breakout may have been a bull trap.

Related: How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing

UNI/USDT

Uniswap’s (UNI) up-move turned down from $31.41 on Sept. 2, suggesting that the bears have not thrown in the towel yet. The price action of the past few days has formed a negative divergence on the RSI, indicating that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($27.91), the bulls will make one more attempt to push the UNI/USDT pair above the overhead resistance at $31.41. If they succeed, the pair may start its journey to $37.52 and then to $42.25.

Alternatively, if bears sink the price below the moving averages, the pair may drop to $25 and remain range-bound for a few more days. A break and close below the $25 to $23.45 support zone will signal that bears are back in the game.

LINK/USDT

Chainlink (LINK) had been range-bound between $24 and $30 for the past few days. The bulls pushed the price above the overhead resistance on Sept. 2 but they could not sustain the higher levels.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls again bought the dip today and have propelled the price above the overhead resistance. If buyers sustain the price above $30, the LINK/USDT pair could rally to $36 and if that level is crossed, the up-move may reach $43.50, which is the May 19 intraday high.

The 20-day EMA ($26.99) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that buyers have the upper hand. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below $30, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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