‘Conservative’ BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K

The supply shock valuation model delivers an extra reason to be long-term bullish on upward price movement.

Bitcoin (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin according to one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.”

In a tweet on Sep. 5, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.

Bitcoin price plays catch-up with metrics

While Bitcoin has still not established $50,000 as firm support, on-chain metrics have been much more firmly bullish for some time.

Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.

Supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first glance, as Woo uses it to effectively “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.”

“In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he explained in a blog post last month.

The valuation model additionally uses an algorithm to compare similar supply and demand situations to now, thus producing a fair price estimate.

“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged in the tweet, referring to the ratio of coins in cold storage compared to on exchanges being at record levels.

The accompanying chart captures when BTC price moved with and without any shifts in investor intent.

Bitcoin supply shock valuation model. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

$50,000 first hurdle for bulls

Bitcoin supply shock is an oft-used phrase in the current market thanks to 2021 being the year after a block subsidy halving event.

Related: More like ‘shock-to-flow’ — BTC price hits bull trigger as mystery buyers scoop up supply

With miners now unlocking just 6.25 BTC per block, so far, Bitcoin has behaved broadly similarly to previous post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.

The conservative $55,000 minimum target nonetheless remains above another set of monthly close minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September will have a minimum monthly close of $43,000.

Thereafter, however, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a tight range throughout the weekend.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
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Price analysis 9/3: BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, UNI, LINK

This week’s sharp rally in Bitcoin and Ether signals that bulls are back in control and altcoins are likely to follow.

Bitcoin (BTC) finally broke above the $50,500 resistance and Ether (ETH) has risen above the $4,000 mark. This suggests that there is growing interest in cryptocurrencies and several legacy finance companies are initiating steps to tap into this increasing demand.

One of the world’s largest independent asset managers, Franklin Templeton, has posted fresh job applications for medium to senior-level positions in crypto trading and research, according to Linkedin job postings.

Meanwhile, in Japan, financial conglomerate SBI Holdings is planning to set up one of the first crypto funds in the country by the end of November. Tomoya Asakura, the director and senior managing executive officer at SBI, said that the launch of a second fund will be explored depending on the success of the first one.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

While crypto traders are cheering the recent run-up in several altcoins, JPMorgan analysts have warned their clients that the altcoin rally and nonfungible tokens (NFT) are getting frothy.

The analysts said that the altcoins share of the crypto market trading surged from 22% at the beginning of August, to 33%, which is high compared to historical standards. They believe the reason is “froth and retail investor ‘mania’ rather than a reflection of a structural uptrend.”

Could Bitcoin sustain above $50,500 and resume its uptrend or will altcoins remain in focus? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The bears successfully defended the $50,500 resistance on Sep. 2 but they could not pull and sustain the price back below the downtrend line. This could have attracted buying from the bulls who have pushed Bitcoin above $50,500 today.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers sustain the price above $50,500, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $60,000. This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls can thrust the price above it, the pair could challenge the all-time high at $64,854.

If bulls drive the relative strength index (RSI) above the downtrend line, it will invalidate the negative divergence. That along with the upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($47,584) indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 200-day simple moving average ($46,083). That could pull the price down to $42,451.67.

ETH/USDT

Ether picked up momentum after breaking above $3,377.89 and hit the $4,000 mark today. If bulls sustain the price above this psychological level, the biggest altcoin could challenge the all-time high at $4,372.72.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($3,344) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that bulls are in control. If buyers push the price above $4,372.72, the ETH/USDT pair could start its journey toward the critical level at $5,000.

This may not be easy as bears are likely to have other plans. They are likely to mount a stiff resistance in the $4,000 to $4,372.72 zone. If the price turns down from this zone and breaks below $3,700, the pair may drop to the 20-day EMA.

A strong rebound off this support will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish. The buyers will then try to resume the up-move. Conversely, a break and close below the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that bulls may be losing their grip.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the $3 mark on Sep. 2 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick. Although the price dipped back below $2.97 today, the bulls bought the dip and are again trying to drive the price above $3.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A breakout and close above $3.10 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then rally to $3.50. The 20-day EMA ($2.58) favors the bulls but the negative divergence on the RSI indicates that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

If bulls fail to drive the price above the overhead resistance, the pair may drop to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level for the bulls to defend. A strong rebound off it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive.

Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA may pull the price to the breakout level at $2.47. A break below this support could start a deeper correction.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin (BNB) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($456) and the overhead resistance at $518.90. The long wick on the Sep. 2 candlestick suggests that bears are selling above $500 but the positive sign is that bulls are not giving up much ground.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will again try to push and sustain the price above $518.90. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $600. This psychological level may act as a resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the rally may extend to $680.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and dips below the 20-day EMA, the pair may slide to $433. A break below this level will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair may then decline to the 200-day SMA ($375).

XRP/USDT

The bulls pushed XRP above the downtrend line on Sep. 2, invalidating the developing bearish descending triangle pattern. The bears tried to pull and sustain the price below the downtrend line today but failed.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls sustain the price above the downtrend line, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $1.35. This level may act as a resistance and if the price turns down from it, the pair may trade between $1.05 and $1.35 for a few days.

The 20-day EMA ($1.15) has turned up and the RSI has risen above 64, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. A breakout and close above $1.35 could clear the path for a rally to $1.66. The bears will have to pull the price below $1.05 to signal a comeback.

SOL/USDT

The bears attempted to stall Solana’s (SOL) uptrend at $130 but the bulls were in no mood to relent. The buyers did not allow the price to break below the psychological support at $100.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buying resumed on Sep. 2 and the bulls have extended the SOL/USDT pair to a new all-time high today. Vertical rallies are rarely sustainable and they usually result in sharp declines. The RSI above 88 also indicates the pair is overextended in the short term.

If the price turns down from the current level or $150, the first support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $115.75.

A strong rebound off this level will suggest strength and increase the possibility of a break above $150. The next target on the upside is $166.97. On the contrary, a break below $115.75 could pull the price down to the 50% retracement level at $106.29.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.28) on Sept. 1 and bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line of the falling wedge pattern on Sept. 2. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick showed that bears were selling at higher levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair has bounced off the 20-day EMA and the bulls have pushed the price above the wedge. If buyers sustain the price above $0.31, the pair could rally to $0.35. This level is likely to act as a strong resistance.

If the price turns down from $0.35, the pair may again drop to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off it will suggest that the sentiment is positive. A breakout and close above $0.35 could clear the path for an up-move to $0.45.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair may drop to the support line of the wedge.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been sustaining above the breakout level at $28.60 for the past three days, indicating the start of a new uptrend. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate advantage to buyers.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls drive the price above $33.84, the DOT/USDT pair could start its northward journey toward $41.40 and then to the pattern target at $46.83.

On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, the price may retest the breakout level at $28.60. If bulls flip this level into support, it may act as a launchpad for the next leg of the up-move.

A break and close below the 20-day EMA ($27.12) will be the first sign that the current breakout may have been a bull trap.

Related: How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing

UNI/USDT

Uniswap’s (UNI) up-move turned down from $31.41 on Sept. 2, suggesting that the bears have not thrown in the towel yet. The price action of the past few days has formed a negative divergence on the RSI, indicating that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($27.91), the bulls will make one more attempt to push the UNI/USDT pair above the overhead resistance at $31.41. If they succeed, the pair may start its journey to $37.52 and then to $42.25.

Alternatively, if bears sink the price below the moving averages, the pair may drop to $25 and remain range-bound for a few more days. A break and close below the $25 to $23.45 support zone will signal that bears are back in the game.

LINK/USDT

Chainlink (LINK) had been range-bound between $24 and $30 for the past few days. The bulls pushed the price above the overhead resistance on Sept. 2 but they could not sustain the higher levels.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls again bought the dip today and have propelled the price above the overhead resistance. If buyers sustain the price above $30, the LINK/USDT pair could rally to $36 and if that level is crossed, the up-move may reach $43.50, which is the May 19 intraday high.

The 20-day EMA ($26.99) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that buyers have the upper hand. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below $30, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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Twitter to allow users to add BTC and ETH addresses to profiles: Screenshots

While the news is unofficial at this stage, Twitter’s product lead Kayvon Beykpour hinted that there could be an announcement soon.

Twitter appears to be developing functionality that enables users to add Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses to their profiles.

The latest update is believed to be a part of Twitter’s Tip Jar feature — which was introduced in May this year — and adds to reports which surfaced earlier this week that the firm would enable Bitcoin (BTC) tipping for content creators.

Italian mobile developer and self-described “leaker” Alessandro Paluzzi tweeted screenshots on Sept. 3 which showed BTC and Ethereum (ETH) wallet address options in the settings toolbar of the app version of Twitter.

While the news is unofficial at this stage, Twitter’s product lead Kayvon Beykpour retweeted Paluzzi’s Sept. 1 post about the BTC tipping feature with the lighting and “soon” arrow emoji.

Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey hinted in July that BTC tipping was a part of its broader plans to integrate that asset into the platform via avenues such as commerce and subscriptions.

An Aug. 31 report from MacRumours claimed that the BTC tipping feature will utilize Lightning Network payment platform Strike. However Paluzzi has suggested that “it is not necessary to link a Strike account” to add BTC addresses to user profiles.

Related: Ethereum alone not enough to disrupt Big Tech: Jack Dorsey

Dorsey’s Square Inc has outlined multiple BTC initiatives in 2021, including an assisted custody wallet and BTC-based DeFi services. The idea of digital gold being used to tip content creators on Twitter is unsurprising given that Dorsey is a BTC maximalist, however the inclusion of ETH appears to be uncharted territory for the tech leader who has notably refused to have anything to do with the second most popular cryptocurrency in the past.

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Honduras gets its first Bitcoin ATM

The “la bitcoinera” machine allows crypto enthusiasts to purchase BTC and ETH using the local fiat currency provided they are willing to scan their IDs and disclose certain personal information.

TGU Consulting Group, a Honduran company based in the capital of Tegucigalpa, has reportedly installed the country’s first Bitcoin ATM.

According to a Friday Reuters report, TGU chief executive Juan Mayen led the move to install the Bitcoin (BTC) ATM in one of the capital’s office buildings. The “la bitcoinera” machine allows crypto enthusiasts to purchase BTC and Ether (ETH) using the local fiat currency, lempira, provided they are willing to scan their IDs and disclose certain personal information.

Mayen said this was the first automated way to purchase Bitcoin in Honduras, but many software developers had been accepting crypto for payments. According to the TGU exec, many Hondurans have had to exchange cash for crypto in person, an action he described as “very inconvenient and dangerous” in the country — data from crowd-sourced platform Numbeo shows the level of crime in Honduras as “very high.”

Lawmakers in some Central America nations have been taking more pro-crypto positions as the market continues to grow. El Salvador is currently installing Bitcoin ATMs across the country in preparation for the cryptocurrency being accepted as legal tender starting on Sept. 7. At least one member of Panama’s congress has also proposed legislation for the country to adopt Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Related: Athena confirms plans to bring 1500 Bitcoin ATMs to El Salvador

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro shows the price of BTC is $48,976 at the time of publication, having risen more than 3% in the last 24 hours. The ETH price is $3,272, having increased more than 4% over the same period.

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Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETC, LUNA, KLAY, AXS

Bitcoin bulls are looking for BTC to rebound off a support zone and if confirmed, ETC, LUNA, KLAY and AXS could push higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a stiff challenge from the bears near the $48,000 mark. As Cointelegraph reported earlier, the buy and sell levels show that sellers on Binance have held their ground at $48,000.

PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price model, said if Bitcoin manages to close August above $47,000, the year-end “worst-case scenario” target price of $135,000 may come into play.

Despite the slight downturn, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin continues to increase. Filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission show that four wealth management firms have bought shares in Grayscale’s Bitcoin Investment Trust.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

A survey of about 42,000 people in 27 countries by product comparison website Finder, showed a high adoption rate in Asia. Among the countries polled, Vietnam had the highest adoption rate at 41% while India and Indonesia had a 30% adoption rate.

Compared to their Asian counterparts, the respondents in the United Kingdom and the United States reported a low 8% and 9% adoption rate. However, the report warned that “due to the varying Google infrastructure in each territory, not all surveys were nationally representative.”

Will Bitcoin’s hesitation near the $48,000 mark result in profit-booking? Could altcoins attract funds that exit Bitcoin? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may extend their up-move in the next few days.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from the resistance line of the rising wedge pattern on Aug. 14. This suggests that the bears have not given up and are defending the resistance line aggressively.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BTC/USDT pair could now drop to the support line of the wedge, which could attract buyers. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to resume the up-move. A breakout and close above the wedge will invalidate the bearish pattern and open the doors for a rally to $53,000 and then $60,000.

The upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive zone suggest that bulls are in control.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears sink the price below the wedge, the pair could drop to the 20-day exponential moving average ($42,682). If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will make one more attempt to resume the up-move.

But if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair may drop to the 50-day simple moving average ($37,176).

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are posing a stiff challenge in the zone between $46,743.47 and $48,144. They have pulled the price down to the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. If the price breaks below this support, the pair could drop to $43,770 and later to $42,451.67.

The flattening 20-EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the bullish momentum may be weakening.

If the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the overhead resistance zone, it will indicate that bulls are buying on every minor dip. That will suggest the resumption of the up-move.

ETC/USDT

Ethereum Classic (ETC) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $63.56 on Aug. 13, completing an ascending triangle pattern. This bullish setup has a pattern target at $94.91.

ETC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Usually, after breaking out of a pattern, the price turns down and retests the breakout level. In this case, the ETC/USDT pair could retest the $63.56 level in the next few days. If bulls flip this level into support, the pair could start a new uptrend.

The rising 20-day EMA ($57) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that bulls have the upper hand. If the price breaks below $63.56, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA.

A strong rebound off the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bullish sentiment remains intact. The buyers will then make one more attempt to resume the up-move. This positive view will be negated if bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA. That could result in a decline to the 50-day SMA ($51).

ETC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is in an uptrend. The bears are attempting to stall the up-move at $76.16 but the positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. The rising moving averages and the RSI near the overbought territory indicate advantage to the buyers.

If bulls propel the price above $76.16, the next stop could be $84.16. On the contrary, if bears sink the price below $70, the pair could decline to the 20-EMA. A strong bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment remains positive but a break below it may pull the price down to $63.56.

LUNA/USDT

Terra protocol’s LUNA token has been trading inside an ascending channel for the past few days. The breakout and close above the downtrend line suggest the start of a new uptrend.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have been defending the overhead resistance at $18 for the past four days. If the price rises from the current level or rebounds off the support line, the bulls will make one more attempt to propel the LUNA/USDT pair above $18. If they manage to do that, the next stop could be $19.54 and then $22.

Alternatively, if the price breaks below the channel and the 20-day EMA ($14), it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then retest the breakout level at the downtrend line.

LUNA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have twice stalled the up-move at $18, which makes it an important level to watch out for. The 20-EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above 50, which points to a possible consolidation in the near term.

If the price rebounds off the 50-SMA, the pair could trade between $15.81 and $18 for some time. A breakout and close above $18 could start the next leg of the uptrend that could reach $20.81. Conversely, a break below $15 may signal the start of a deeper correction to $13.

KLAY/USDT

Klaytn (KLAY) rose above the $1.81 resistance on Aug. 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The long wick on the candlestick of the past two days suggests that bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance.

KLAY/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the RSI deep into the overbought zone, indicating the possibility of a minor correction or consolidation in the next few days. Any dip is likely to find support at $1.60 and then at $1.40.

If the price rebounds off either support, the bulls will make one more attempt to rise above $1.81. A breakout and close above this level will complete a rounding bottom pattern, which has a target objective at $2.90.

This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($1.32). That could result in a decline to the 50-day SMA ($1.07).

KLAY/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that bears thwarted two attempts by the bulls to push the price above the $1.81 resistance. If bears sustain their selling pressure and sink the price below the 20-EMA, the decline could extend to the 50-SMA.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the hurdle at $1.81. If they succeed, the KLAY/USDT pair could rally to $2.18. The rising moving averages and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicate advantage to the bulls.

Related: Bullish Ethereum traders can place risk-averse bets with this options strategy

AXS/USD

Axie Infinity’s native token AXS has been in a strong bull run in the past few weeks, hitting a new all-time high at $77.48 on Aug. 11. The long wick on the day’s candlestick showed that traders booked profits at higher levels.

AXS/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The AXS/USDT pair has corrected to the immediate support at $63. If bears sink the price below this level, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($51). The previous two corrections reversed direction from the 20-day EMA.

Therefore, the bulls are again likely to buy the dip to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this level will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips. The bulls will then again try to resume the uptrend.

A breakout and close above $77.48 could clear the path for a possible run to $91 and then to psychological resistance at $100. Alternatively, a breakdown and close below the 20-day EMA may signal the start of a deeper correction.

AXS/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a breakdown and close below the support at $63. This reversal setup has a pattern target at $48.52. The flattening 20-EMA and the RSI near the midpoint indicate that the bullish momentum is weakening.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, it will invalidate the bearish setup. That could increase the possibility of a retest of the all-time high at $77.48.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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