Derivatives data favors Ethereum bulls even with this week’s crash below $3K

Losing the $3,000 mark just days before Friday’s $1.55 billion ETH options expiry nearly doomed Ether longs, but derivatives data shows bulls are still in favor.

Ether (ETH) has been in a bearish trend since early September, and this week’s Evergrande-led market crash drove the price below $2,700 on Sept.20, its lowest level in 47 days. Curiously, just three weeks ago, Ether was testing the $4,000 psychological barrier, but this changed after mounting crypto regulatory concerns and the fear of China’s debt markets triggering a global sell-off intensified.

This week U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler spoke to the Washington Post about renewed plans to regulate the crypto sector and the growing stablecoin market.

Ether’s negative price trend reversed on Sept. 22 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the continuation of the central bank’s monthly bond purchasing program. Powell also made clear that no interest rate hike should be expected in 2021.

Ether price at Bitstamp in USD. Source: TradingView

Even though the current $3,000 level represents a 25% retraction from the recent $4,000 peak, Ether price still reflects a 215% gain in 2021 and the network’s adjusted total value locked (TVL) jumped from $13 billion in 2020 to $60 billion, signaling strong adoption despite surging gas fees.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 24. Source: Bybt.com

As shown above, bulls got caught by surprise because 72% of call (buy) instruments were placed at $3,200 or higher. Consequently, if Ether remains below that price on Friday, only $260 million worth of neutral-to-bullish call options will be activated on the expiry.

A call option is a right to sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price on the set expiry date. Thus, a $3,200 cut option becomes worthless if Ether remains below that price at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 24.

Bulls still have an advantage in Friday’s $1.55 billion expiry

The 1.48 call-to-put ratio represents the difference between the $920 million worth of call (buy) options versus the $620 million put (sell) options. This bird’s eye view begs a more detailed analysis because some bets are far-fetched considering the current $3,000 level.

Below are the four most likely scenarios considering the current Ether price. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit from the expiry. The data below shows how many contracts will be activated on Friday, depending on the ETH price:

  • Between $2,700 and $2,900: 61,900 calls vs. 72,000 puts. The net result is $27 million favoring the protective put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $2,900 and $3,000: 79,900 calls vs. 52,200 puts. The net result is $80 million favoring the call (bull) options.
  • Between $3,000 and $3,200: 82,500 calls vs. 37,300 puts. The net result is $136 million favoring the call (bull) options.
  • Above $3,200: 99,600 calls vs. 20,200 puts. The net result favors the call options by $255 million.

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish strategies and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors typically use more complex strategies that involve different expiry dates. Moreover, there is no way to know if the arbitrage desks are fully hedged.

To win, bears need to keep Ether below $2,900

These two competing forces will show their strength, and the bears will try to minimize the damage. On the other hand, the bulls have decent control over the situation if the Ether price remains above $3,000.

The most important test will be the $2,900 level because bears have significant incentives to suppress the price at this level, even if momentarily. Although there’s still room for additional volatility ahead of the expiry, the bulls seem to be better positioned.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Here’s why Avalanche, OriginTrail and Coti hardly budged as Bitcoin fell to $40K

Market corrections are scary, but savvy altcoin traders also know it is an opportunity to secure hefty gains — here’s how.

Admittedly, the last few days have not been not the most pleasant time for crypto traders as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) price fell short of breaking the $50,000 threshold, then slid to the low-$40,000 range and pulled the majority of altcoins down with it.

Despite this sharp downturn, a handful of tokens seemed to do much better than the rest of the market by posting weekly gains in their BTC and U.S. dollar-denominated pairs.

Some traders looking to rack up their Bitcoin holdings cannot be bothered to follow an altcoins’ price dynamics against the dollar. For them, BTC slumps like the recent one can be seen as a profit opportunity, but how does one tell what coins are likely to perform well when BTC is on its way down?

AVAX: Powered by the news

Avalanche (AVAX) has added 28.19% in its dollar pair and 43.46% against BTC over the past week. Furthermore, on Sept. 17, the price of AVAX rose from 128,600 satoshis (sats) to 153,600 sats on the news of a partnership between the Avalanche Foundation and DeFi liquidity hub Kyber Network.

AVAX price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As AVAX’s price was coming down from this first peak, the pattern of market and social conditions around the asset’s price movement, trading volume, tweet volume and sentiment began to strongly resemble the patterns observed in previous dramatic price increases.

This was indicated by the coin’s algorithmic VORTECS™ Score — an indicator exclusively available to CT Markets Pro subscribers — going above 80, which can be seen on the dark green line marked by a red circle on the chart.

Scores of 80 and above indicate the model’s high confidence that the pattern is consistent.

Indeed, several hours after the VORTECS™ Score line had turned dark green, AVAX’s rally resumed. It was undercut by the market-wide slump in the early hours of Sept. 20, but the token’s individual bullish momentum was so strong that it rebounded in less than a day, trading at 156,900 sats on Sept. 22.

TRAC: A long turnaround

In the last seven days, OriginTrail’s Trace (TRAC) token has been up 6.02% against the U.S. dollar and 18.11% against Bitcoin.

TRAC price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

On Sept. 16, social and market variables around TRAC formed a historically favorable arrangement, and the coin’s VORTECS™ Score reached the value of 85 against the price of 852 sats. The algorithm is trained to detect conditions that have consistently preceded previous rallies by 12 to 72 hours, so sometimes price movement action can come days after a favorable score is registered.

This turned out to be the case with TRAC’s price action this week. Roughly 70 hours after the peak VORTECS™ Score showed up, the coin soared from 740 to 1088 sats in 24 hours. The Sept. 20 market flash crash took its toll on TRAC, but it recovered quicker and harder than most and secured positive weekly returns against both BTC and the dollar.

COTI: Enough momentum to weather the storm

COTI generated an extra 12.55% against the dollar and 26.51% versus BTC this past week.

COTI price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

The coin’s VORTECS™ Score briefly went beyond 80 briefly on Sept. 17 in the middle of a rally that took it from 668 to 926 Sats. COTI’s momentum began to recede before the Sept. 20 rout, with the asset trading at around 800 sats early that day. Yet, the robust market and social outlook detected earlier ensured that the asset’s recovery was smooth: The coin recouped much of the losses over the next two days.

While the VORTECS™ Score is by no means a prediction of future price movement, it can alert investors to historical trends that can be profitably incorporated into a trading strategy. 

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risks including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.

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Avalanche (AVAX) just hit a new ATH, but what’s really behind the price surge?

AVAX price soared to a record high as heavy inflows enter the protocol through its cross-chain bridge and institutional investors pledge $230 million in funding for the rapidly expanding Avalanche ecosystem.

On Sept.16 Avalanche (AVAX) price hit a new all-time high at $68.89 and over the last few months the project has risen to challenge the Ethereum (ETH) network’s dominance among smart contract platforms. According to the project’s website, the layer-one protocol capable of surpassing 4,500 transactions per second (TPS) with a time to finality of less than 2 seconds.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that since hitting a low of $32.10 on Sept. 7, the price of AVAX has rallied 111% to establish a new all-time high on Sept. 16 as its 24-hour trading volume spiked 200% to $2.8 billion.

AVAX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Three reasons for the surging price of AVAX include the recent completion of a $230 investment round by large capital funds, the continued migration of liquidity to the Avalanche network and new integrations and protocol upgrades that help improve the user experience.

Big funds back Avalanche

The jump in momentum seen in AVAX price on Sept. 16 came following the announcement that a handful of large funds including Polychain Capital, Three Arrows Capital and Dragonfly capital took part in a $230 million funding round for the project.

This marks the largest investment into the Avalanche ecosystem to date and indicates that larger institutional players are starting to take a keen interest in the Ethereum competitor.

The Avalanche network is cross-chain compatible with Ethereum meaning any tokens or projects that operate on Ethereum can fully migrate to the Avalanche ecosystem and take advantage of its higher throughput capabilities and lower transaction costs.

With no definitive date on when Eth2.0 will be fully operational or what its final capabilities will be, networks like Avalanche now have an opportunity to make the case for why they are a better choice, which could lead to an increase in their market share.

Liquidity migration and rising TVL

A second reason for the building strength seen in AVAX has been the continual migration of assets from networks like Ethereum to Avalanche to participate in its growing decentralized finance ecosystem.

Evidence of the asset migration can be found in the total value locked (TVL) data provided by Defi Llama, which shows that the TVL on Avalanche has been climbing rapidly since Aug. 19 and reached a new record high of $2.17 billion on Sept. 16.

Total value locked on Avalanche. Source: Defi Llama

The rise in TVL is largely due to the launch and growth of several successful decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols on Avalanche including Benqi (QI), Trader Joe (JOE) and Pangolin (PNG).

Related: Bull flag breakout pushes Avalanche toward $80 as AVAX price hits another record high

Partnerships and crypto-related integrations

A third factor that has helped boost the value of AVAX has been a series of partnership and integration announcements that have excited investors and put the spotlight on the project.

The Avalanche NFT ecosystem has seen an influx of interest thanks to a partnership with the sports card and memorabilia company Topps, which launched its “Inception” NFT digital collectibles series on the network.

There is also a vote underway in the Aave community, one of the top DeFi protocols in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, to see if investors want to see AAVE launch on the Avalanche network. A vote of approval could lead to a further increase in TVL on Avalanche as assets held in AAVE on Ethereum have the potential to be migrated to AAVE on Avalanche.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, market conditions for AVAX have been favorable for some time.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. AVAX price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for AVAX spiked into the green and reached a high of 86 on Sept. 13, around 24 hours before the price increased 40% over the next two days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Fetch.ai ignores the Bitcoin-led market meltdown by notching a 60% gain

FET’s price spiked by 60% in an otherwise red market thanks to a growing number of real-world use cases and protocol upgrades.

The real-world adoption of blockchain technology is a slowly developing process. It requires the proper use cases and a willing public open to new experiences when venturing outside of their comfort zone.

An increasing number of real-world applications appear to be the motivating factor behind the recent gains seen in Fetch.ai (FET), a protocol focused on building an open access, token-based decentralized machine learning network to support the smart infrastructure being built around the digital economy.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $0.658 on Sept. 6, the price of FET spiked 70% to $1.12 on Sept. 7 — a new record high. Meanwhile, FET’s 24-hour trading volume surged 538% to $590 million.

FET/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The rapid increase in price and trading volume comes as the project tests a new multi-modal transport application called “Deep Parking,” an application built with AI and blockchain technology that helps automobile drivers locate empty parking spaces.

The protocol also achieved a “global first” on Sept. 7 when an on-board Fetch.ai agent successfully interacted with Datarella’s self-sovereign identity, allowing the driver to rent a scooter from Tier Mobility.

Related: Fetch.ai launches NFT platform for AI-generated art

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for FET on Sep. 3, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points, including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. FET price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for FET began to pick up on Sept. 3 and reached a high of 71 around 48 hours before its price increased by 70% over the next two days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bullish cup and handle pattern sets Cardano (ADA) price up for a new ATH

ADA’s daily close above the $2.30 resistance and a classic bullish technical analysis pattern signal that the altcoin is ready to hit a new all-time high.

Smart contracts have been a revolutionary force in the blockchain industry because they have enabled the creation of decentralized finance protocols, nonfungible tokens and a new form of carrying out transactions without the need of a middleman. 

Cardano (ADA) is one of the many projects that has been gaining momentum throughout 2021 and now that the project’s long-awaited smart contract capabilities are on the verge of becoming reality, the token is on the precipice of setting a new all-time high.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after bottoming at a low of $1.02 on July 20, the price of ADA has surged 139% to a multi-week high at $2.45.

ADA/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what some analysts and traders are saying about the recent price action for ADA and what token holders may want to keep an eye on in the short term.

A bullish upturn in the 50MA

The rapidly rising price of ADA has been hard for most traders to ignore, especially since multiple technical indicators have now flipped bullish.

One such indicator is the 50-day moving average (50MA), which is now pointed up after being on a downslope for roughly 2 months as highlighted in the following chart posted by pseudonymous Twitter user Pharmlord.

ADA/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

As seen in the chart above, once crossing above the 50-MA, ADA price doubled and is now on the verge of hitting a new all-time high at $2.46. 

Flipping $2.30 to support is key

Insight into the important levels that ADA bulls need to keep an eye on was provided by Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous Twitter analyst who pinpointed the importance of the $2.30 level.

ADA has already managed to convincingly surpass a lower resistance zone shown in red on the chart above and is now it is attempting to break the May 16 all-time high at $2.46.

According to Rekt Capital: 

“The only major resistance left before a new All-Time Highs is the black level ahead (~$2.30).”

Related: ADA hits $2 for the first time since May ahead of Cardano smart contract announcement

A cup and handle breakout will confirm the ATH

According to Twitter user ‘Fidzcrypto’, ADA is showing a distinct cup and handle formation on the daily timeframe.

ADA/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Investopedia cites the cup and handle pattern as a technical indicator that resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is in the shape of a “u” and the handle has a slight downward drift.”

The cup portion of the pattern can be seen on the chart between May 14 and Aug. 16, while the handle is seen in the price dip and recovery from Aug. 16 – Aug. 18.

According to Investopedia:

“The cup and handle is considered a bullish signal, with the right-hand side of the pattern typically experiencing lower trading volume. The pattern’s formation may be as short as seven weeks or as long as 65 weeks.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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